Note: Euppy went up to the volatility pivot at 135.39 where I TP.EG Intraday - 30 June '09
Note: I TP and went short again below Daily S2 (see below). Trade was scratched (B/E) and I went long 10 pips above the Daily S2.
Note: I went short 10 pips below Daily S2... scratched (B/E). Then went long 10 pips above Daily S2.
Note: Final long was scratched (B/E).
GU Intraday - 30 June '09
Note: I went long again 10 pips above the Daily R2.
Note: Trailing stops hit on the way down for small profit.
Note: Ended up being a rather good short (see below). Made me really, really happy!!!
Note: Short below Daily S1 eventually scratched (B/E).
GJ Intraday - 30 June '09
Note: By this time, all the trailing stops have been hit... and I was all squared.
Note: GJ broke through the volatility pivot, confirming that failure past Daily R1 is a reversal. So, I went short at this juncture.
EU Intraday - 30 June '09
I've decided to take a different approach in sharing my trades. These charts are screenshots taken during the trading day, and for those in the #forex chatroom at ircforex.com would have seen these in realtime. Hopefully, this will promote greater understanding of how I go about implementing my strategy and as to the thought process that goes into the trades.
And I hope, you'll appreciate too... the speed in which I go about my work, courtesy of the years spent as an institutional trader. FYI, I have to monitor, analyse & manually execute my trades... for 5 pairs (Cable, Euro, Geppy, Euppy and Chunnel)... PLUS having to take screenshots, post them in the chatroom AND have having to entertain question after question. :-)
Note: The small punt long from 1.4092 reached it's target at the Daily R1, 1.4131.
Note: The SL was hit and I reversed 10 pips above the Daily S1 (see below).
And I hope, you'll appreciate too... the speed in which I go about my work, courtesy of the years spent as an institutional trader. FYI, I have to monitor, analyse & manually execute my trades... for 5 pairs (Cable, Euro, Geppy, Euppy and Chunnel)... PLUS having to take screenshots, post them in the chatroom AND have having to entertain question after question. :-)
Note: The small punt long from 1.4092 reached it's target at the Daily R1, 1.4131.
Note: The SL was hit and I reversed 10 pips above the Daily S1 (see below).
Note: TP sometime after this and went off. :-)
ADP Employment Data to Drive the Majors Today
The surprise drop in consumer confidence in the United States yesterday has resulted in a sudden buy-up in USD as investors flock to safe-havens. With a market that appears to be lacking a clear direction recently, major reports such as the CB Consumer Confidence report yesterday, and today's ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report become that much more important to watch as more investors await their release before trading.
USD - USD Trades Higher on Economic Outlook
The greenback gained Tuesday as a report on U.S. home prices showed that the pace of price declines may be slowing and manufacturing data from June came in slightly better than expected. The Dollar may extend its gains versus the EUR after a report showed an unexpected drop in U.S. consumer confidence for June, increasing demand for the safety of the world's main reserve currency.
The USD traded at 1.4035 versus the EUR, following a 0.4% gain yesterday. The dollar also fetched 96.35 yen following a 0.3% advance. Tuesday's data gave investors more reasons to buy the U.S Dollar. For months, improvements in the outlook for the economy, financial markets or other companies has led to stock gains and weighed on the USD, taken as a signal of reduced demand among investors to hold the safe-haven currency.
However, analysts have said that the Dollar may be near a turning point, after trading in a pattern closely correlated with equity moves. Investors have sold U.S. Dollars recently as stock markets and oil prices rose on an upbeat view for prospects of a global economic recovery, hurting demand for the greenback as a safe haven.
Investors now await the U.S. government's high-profile monthly employment report. The jobs data is due on Thursday as U.S. financial markets will be shut on Friday for Independence Day.
EUR - EUR Holds Steady vs. Greenback and Rallies against JPY
The EUR gained versus the U.S Dollar on speculation European Central Bank (ECB) policy-makers will today signal that the central bank will keep Interest Rates on hold into next year to aid an economic recovery. ECB member Axel Weber said last week that the central bank has used up its scope to cut Rates. Policy-makers will leave the benchmark rate unchanged at this week's meeting, according to analyst predictions.
There is also an improving sentiment in the Euro-Zone's economic conditions. European economic confidence rose more than economists forecast in June, the European Commission in Brussels reported yesterday, signaling the region's slump is abating. Analysts predict that the ECB will keep Rates at 1% for the foreseeable future. And that might turn the EUR further on the upside.
The European currency has advanced the most in 4 months against the Yen, last traded at 135.56 yen from 135.21 yesterday. When it reached 135.96 for a brief stint yesterday, this was the highest level reached since June 15. The EUR has risen 7.1% versus the Japanese yen this year and doesn't seem to be losing any momentum.
JPY - Yen Declines as Investors Dump Safety Demand
The Japanese Yen weakened against the EUR and the Dollar yesterday after a report showed China's manufacturing expanded for a 4th consecutive month, dampening demand for the relative safety of Japan's currency. The JPY fell to 135.80 per EUR and weakened to 96.95 per U.S. Dollar from 96.36. The Yen also fell against 15 of the 16 most-traded currencies after an Australian report showed retail sales climbed for a 3rd month, giving investors more confidence to purchase higher-yielding assets.
Although, the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) June Tankan corporate survey showed on Tuesday that big manufacturers' sentiment pulled back from a record low hit 3 months ago, the improvement was smaller than forecast. The Yen edged down against the Dollar after the news but the market's reaction was subdued overall as investors decided that it offered no surprise.
Analysts said that the market has considered all the positive factors that have come out and is starting to react more to negative factors. The market is lacking clear direction and is likely to stay in an adjustment period for now.
Crude Oil - Crude Oil Momentum to Rise Further
Crude Oil rose above $70 a barrel after an industry report showed the biggest decline in crude inventories since September in the U.S., the world's largest user of the fuel. Also today, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report will probably give a better direction to the market.
A U.S. Energy Department report today will likely show Crude Oil stockpiles declined 2 million barrels, according to economists' estimations. A fall in crude inventories may cause the commodities market to move higher, and will reinforce Crude to stay at or go above current levels.
Oil prices yesterday spiked above $73 a barrel, which stood as the June high for more than 2 weeks, as the Dollar declined and escalating militant attacks in Nigeria raised concern that supplies may be disrupted. Crude Oil is set to extend gains amid this week's volatility and may reach the $76 a barrel level.
Article Source - ADP Employment Data to Drive the Majors Today
USD - USD Trades Higher on Economic Outlook
The greenback gained Tuesday as a report on U.S. home prices showed that the pace of price declines may be slowing and manufacturing data from June came in slightly better than expected. The Dollar may extend its gains versus the EUR after a report showed an unexpected drop in U.S. consumer confidence for June, increasing demand for the safety of the world's main reserve currency.
The USD traded at 1.4035 versus the EUR, following a 0.4% gain yesterday. The dollar also fetched 96.35 yen following a 0.3% advance. Tuesday's data gave investors more reasons to buy the U.S Dollar. For months, improvements in the outlook for the economy, financial markets or other companies has led to stock gains and weighed on the USD, taken as a signal of reduced demand among investors to hold the safe-haven currency.
However, analysts have said that the Dollar may be near a turning point, after trading in a pattern closely correlated with equity moves. Investors have sold U.S. Dollars recently as stock markets and oil prices rose on an upbeat view for prospects of a global economic recovery, hurting demand for the greenback as a safe haven.
Investors now await the U.S. government's high-profile monthly employment report. The jobs data is due on Thursday as U.S. financial markets will be shut on Friday for Independence Day.
EUR - EUR Holds Steady vs. Greenback and Rallies against JPY
The EUR gained versus the U.S Dollar on speculation European Central Bank (ECB) policy-makers will today signal that the central bank will keep Interest Rates on hold into next year to aid an economic recovery. ECB member Axel Weber said last week that the central bank has used up its scope to cut Rates. Policy-makers will leave the benchmark rate unchanged at this week's meeting, according to analyst predictions.
There is also an improving sentiment in the Euro-Zone's economic conditions. European economic confidence rose more than economists forecast in June, the European Commission in Brussels reported yesterday, signaling the region's slump is abating. Analysts predict that the ECB will keep Rates at 1% for the foreseeable future. And that might turn the EUR further on the upside.
The European currency has advanced the most in 4 months against the Yen, last traded at 135.56 yen from 135.21 yesterday. When it reached 135.96 for a brief stint yesterday, this was the highest level reached since June 15. The EUR has risen 7.1% versus the Japanese yen this year and doesn't seem to be losing any momentum.
JPY - Yen Declines as Investors Dump Safety Demand
The Japanese Yen weakened against the EUR and the Dollar yesterday after a report showed China's manufacturing expanded for a 4th consecutive month, dampening demand for the relative safety of Japan's currency. The JPY fell to 135.80 per EUR and weakened to 96.95 per U.S. Dollar from 96.36. The Yen also fell against 15 of the 16 most-traded currencies after an Australian report showed retail sales climbed for a 3rd month, giving investors more confidence to purchase higher-yielding assets.
Although, the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) June Tankan corporate survey showed on Tuesday that big manufacturers' sentiment pulled back from a record low hit 3 months ago, the improvement was smaller than forecast. The Yen edged down against the Dollar after the news but the market's reaction was subdued overall as investors decided that it offered no surprise.
Analysts said that the market has considered all the positive factors that have come out and is starting to react more to negative factors. The market is lacking clear direction and is likely to stay in an adjustment period for now.
Crude Oil - Crude Oil Momentum to Rise Further
Crude Oil rose above $70 a barrel after an industry report showed the biggest decline in crude inventories since September in the U.S., the world's largest user of the fuel. Also today, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report will probably give a better direction to the market.
A U.S. Energy Department report today will likely show Crude Oil stockpiles declined 2 million barrels, according to economists' estimations. A fall in crude inventories may cause the commodities market to move higher, and will reinforce Crude to stay at or go above current levels.
Oil prices yesterday spiked above $73 a barrel, which stood as the June high for more than 2 weeks, as the Dollar declined and escalating militant attacks in Nigeria raised concern that supplies may be disrupted. Crude Oil is set to extend gains amid this week's volatility and may reach the $76 a barrel level.
Article Source - ADP Employment Data to Drive the Majors Today
Euro Vulnerable as German Retail Sales Stall, Bolstering Case for ECB Rate Cut (Euro Open)
The Euro may see selling pressure emerge in the forthcoming session as German Retail Sales come to a standstill in May, with the prospect of deepening recession boosting priced-in expectations for an ECB interest rate cut later in the week.
Key Overnight Developments
• Japan’s Tankan Survey Reveals Dour Outlook for Manufacturing
• Australian Retail Sales Top Expectations But Outlook Still Uncertain
Critical Levels
The Euro is little-changed heading in the European market open after a choppy overnight trading session that saw the single currency test as low as 1.4002. The British Pound slipped a bit lower, paring initial losses that saw the sterling sink as low as 1.6415 to trade down -0.1% ahead of the opening bell in Europe.
Asia Session Highlights
Japan’s Tankan Large Manufacturers Index rose to -48 in the second quarter from a record low at -58 recorded in the three months to March. The forward-looking Outlook index that aims to predict the third-quarter outcome rose to -30, narrowly topping economists’ forecasts of a -34 result. Despite the improvement in the headline figure, details of the report were far from encouraging: large manufacturers’ sales are expected to fall -14% in 2009 fiscal year (12 months through March 2009), the most in five years, while profits are set to shrink -39.5%. Sub-indexes measuring employment conditions and production capacity are both forecast to decline by September while the difference of expected demand less supply is set to narrow in the same period. On balance, this bolsters the Bank of Japan’s latest assessment calling for output and exports to “level out” due to inventory adjustments, meaning firms are set to continue to operate at leaner levels as demand remains lackluster. This means employment and consumption are set to remain at the lower end of the spectrum for some time notwithstanding recent improvements in household spending driven by a temporary boost from the government’s record-setting $25 trillion yen stimulus package.
Australian Retail Sales grew more than economists expected in May, adding 1% after growing 0.3% in the previous month. Forecasts issued ahead of the release were calling for a 0.5% expansion. In annual terms however, receipts grew 6%, the smallest increase since February. Department stores and clothing retailers led the metric higher, adding 5.5% and 2.9%, respectively. Sales were likely driven by the government’s aggressive spending efforts considering the same period also saw rising unemployment as well as shrinking private-sector credit. The big question going forward remains whether the economic growth will retain current momentum after the flow of stimulus cash dries up, and the outlook seems decidedly dour. A survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg calls for the jobless rate to hit 6.5% by the end of 2009, amounting to substantial headwinds for incomes and consumption, while Westpac Banking Corp has said the economy will shrink at an annualized rate of -1.5% through the second half of this year.
Euro Session: What to Expect
German Retail Sales are expected to come to a standstill in May with annualized receipts falling for the fourth consecutive month, this time by -1.5%. Deepening turmoil in the labor market has weighed on disposable incomes, trimming spending and encouraging precautionary saving. Indeed, the unemployment rate rose to 8.3% in June, the highest in 16 months, and is expected to average around 10% through the end of 2010 according to the International Monetary Fund. Consumption is the largest contributor to overall economic growth, meaning the chance of a substantive recovery in GDP growth is unlikely in the months ahead, both for the Euro Zone’s largest economy and the currency bloc as a whole. The prospect of deepening recession and an increasingly credible deflationary threat have boosted expectations that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates later this week, with overnight index swaps suggesting the market now sees a 59.9% chance of a 25 basis point reduction.
Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst
Article Source - Euro Vulnerable as German Retail Sales Stall, Bolstering Case for ECB Rate Cut (Euro Open)
Key Overnight Developments
• Japan’s Tankan Survey Reveals Dour Outlook for Manufacturing
• Australian Retail Sales Top Expectations But Outlook Still Uncertain
Critical Levels
The Euro is little-changed heading in the European market open after a choppy overnight trading session that saw the single currency test as low as 1.4002. The British Pound slipped a bit lower, paring initial losses that saw the sterling sink as low as 1.6415 to trade down -0.1% ahead of the opening bell in Europe.
Asia Session Highlights
Japan’s Tankan Large Manufacturers Index rose to -48 in the second quarter from a record low at -58 recorded in the three months to March. The forward-looking Outlook index that aims to predict the third-quarter outcome rose to -30, narrowly topping economists’ forecasts of a -34 result. Despite the improvement in the headline figure, details of the report were far from encouraging: large manufacturers’ sales are expected to fall -14% in 2009 fiscal year (12 months through March 2009), the most in five years, while profits are set to shrink -39.5%. Sub-indexes measuring employment conditions and production capacity are both forecast to decline by September while the difference of expected demand less supply is set to narrow in the same period. On balance, this bolsters the Bank of Japan’s latest assessment calling for output and exports to “level out” due to inventory adjustments, meaning firms are set to continue to operate at leaner levels as demand remains lackluster. This means employment and consumption are set to remain at the lower end of the spectrum for some time notwithstanding recent improvements in household spending driven by a temporary boost from the government’s record-setting $25 trillion yen stimulus package.
Australian Retail Sales grew more than economists expected in May, adding 1% after growing 0.3% in the previous month. Forecasts issued ahead of the release were calling for a 0.5% expansion. In annual terms however, receipts grew 6%, the smallest increase since February. Department stores and clothing retailers led the metric higher, adding 5.5% and 2.9%, respectively. Sales were likely driven by the government’s aggressive spending efforts considering the same period also saw rising unemployment as well as shrinking private-sector credit. The big question going forward remains whether the economic growth will retain current momentum after the flow of stimulus cash dries up, and the outlook seems decidedly dour. A survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg calls for the jobless rate to hit 6.5% by the end of 2009, amounting to substantial headwinds for incomes and consumption, while Westpac Banking Corp has said the economy will shrink at an annualized rate of -1.5% through the second half of this year.
Euro Session: What to Expect
German Retail Sales are expected to come to a standstill in May with annualized receipts falling for the fourth consecutive month, this time by -1.5%. Deepening turmoil in the labor market has weighed on disposable incomes, trimming spending and encouraging precautionary saving. Indeed, the unemployment rate rose to 8.3% in June, the highest in 16 months, and is expected to average around 10% through the end of 2010 according to the International Monetary Fund. Consumption is the largest contributor to overall economic growth, meaning the chance of a substantive recovery in GDP growth is unlikely in the months ahead, both for the Euro Zone’s largest economy and the currency bloc as a whole. The prospect of deepening recession and an increasingly credible deflationary threat have boosted expectations that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates later this week, with overnight index swaps suggesting the market now sees a 59.9% chance of a 25 basis point reduction.
Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst
Article Source - Euro Vulnerable as German Retail Sales Stall, Bolstering Case for ECB Rate Cut (Euro Open)
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